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Your Opponent Might Be Bluffing If Part3
July 27th, 2009
Remember that your running count is meant be a count of only the number of bets you win and lose, and not the number of times you make the bet or the number pots you win or lose. Count only the number of bets that go in and out of your stack of chips.
I recommend that you do not perform this exercise during the same playing session as the next exercise. Keep them separate. Even though they are both about bluffing, I think it will help keep you focused if you perform them on separate days.
Now put the shoe on the other foot. Let’s look at only those times you’re in the pot on the river, you’re first to bet, and you know that the only way you can win the hand is to bet as a pure bluff. These are the only hands we want to count for this exercise. Jackpotjoy roulette
Again, you’re going to keep a running count of the number of bets you win and lose when attempting to bluff. If you attempt to bluff and get caught, your running count is -1. If you try it six more times and lose all six of those times, your running count is down to -7. If you then bluff and win a pot with 25 bets in it, your running count is now up to +18. In this example, you can see that you attempted to bluff eight times, lost seven of those times and yet, you’re a whopping 18 big bets ahead when it comes to bluffing! See what the power of pot odds can do for you? You always have to count the pot when you have an important decision to make. Whenever you see a player fold his hand while saying, “The pot’s not big enough,” you know that he’s a player who understands pot odds.
The object of the above exercises is for you to have a positive running count in bluffing and catching bluffs. If you find that you’re right virtually every time that you decide to snap off a suspected bluff, you’re not calling enough in those situations. Loosen up and call a little more often in those spots. Conversely, if you succeed almost every time you try to bluff, you’re definitely not bluffing enough. If it works almost every time, why don’t you try bluffing a little more often?
Don’t go overboard, though. When I’m in a spot where the pot odds are only slightly favorable, I usually pass! If I need odds of 8:1 and I’m getting 9:1, for example, I’ll usually fold as if the odds were slightly worse than what I need rather than slightly better (as they are). online betting
Why? Well, close calls cause you to have big fluctuations in your bankroll without adding substantially to your overall winnings or hourly rate. I realize that I might be giving up a very slight mathematical edge but I simply don’t like fluctuations in my bankroll. I just like to see it steadily grow with each passing hour in the game.
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Your Opponent Might Be Bluffing If Part2
July 26th, 2009
The next time you play in your usual game, pay attention to the betting that takes place on the river. As you undoubtedly know by now, not every bet that is made on the river is made because the bettor has the nuts and is betting for value. A lot of those bets are going to be pure bluff attempts. But which ones? I will leave that for you to decide for yourself.
If you're in the hand on the river, and you find yourself saying, "I think that guy's bet is a bluff," under your breath, then here's what I want you to do:
1. Determine the pot odds. If you have to call $6 with a $55 pot, then you're getting pot odds of about 9:1. If you have to call $8 with a $45 pot, then you're getting pot odds of about 5.5:1, or 11:2.
2. Try to determine what your chances of winning the hand are in a showdown with the bettor. Say to yourself, "I have a 1 out of X chance of winning this hand." You decide what the X is.
3. Now compare the two numbers from steps 1 and 2. Remember, you want the number from step 1 to be bigger than the number from step 2. For example, you might say to yourself, "I think my chances of winning the hand are 1 out of 6, and the pot odds are 9:1." Or, "I think my chances of winning the hand are 1 out of
3. and the pot odds are 5:1."
4. If the number from the pot odds is bigger than the number you came up with from your hand, you should call. The pot is offering you better odds than you need, so you have an overlay. That's a great situation to be in, and you will show a profit in the long run, which will add to your hourly rate.
5. If you call this possible bluff because you have the right pot odds, keep track of how you make out. Every time you call to catch a possible bluff, count how many bets it costs you to call, and count how many bets are in the pots you win. If you call one bet and win a pot with eight bets in it, your count would be +8. Don't count the bet you called with.
If you call a possible bluff and lose the hand, however, then subtract one bet from your running count. Now you're at +7. If you try to catch three more bluffs and lose them all, your running count would be at +4. If you then catch a bluff with 15 bets in the pot, your running count would now be +19. Start this running count at the beginning of the game, and keep it going until your playing session is over.
When you're completing your notes, make sure this count is in big bets (it should already be big bets, since you're counting only bets that take place on the river) per hour, and compare that number to the one or two big bets per hour that you hope to win in the long run.
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