Favorable Times To Bluff In Poker
July 24th, 2009
I've identified ten instances in the game when you might (or should) be thinking about bluffing. Review this list occasionally to keep these points in your mind.
1. When you have AKs. If you raised before the flop and played the hand strongly from the beginning, your opponents will give you credit for a good hand. They may think you have AKs, AA or AK, or whatever two cards it takes to make a completed hand. If you don't make a great hand, a bluff attempt on the river may still work, because they don't realize you're bluffing.
2. When you have excellent pot odds. If you missed your draw on the river, and the pot is huge, you should at least give a thought to bluffing before checking and folding. Sometimes the pot is so big it's worth a try.
3. When you're playing against good players. An experienced player is capable of figuring out what you might be holding and give you credit for it. He will then make a mathematical calculation, and, if he doesn't have the right pot odds to call, he will fold. Bad players don't do this; they just call anyway.
4. When you have hidden strength. If you're in the blind with unusual cards, and you get a flop to match them, or if you've varied your play and hit a good flop, you have hidden strength. Your opponents often won't realize that a check from you means you have a strong hand (in this instance you're bluffing to pretend your hand is worse than it actually is, not better).
5. When you're in higher stakes games. These games have better players, who are capable of folding one pair or two pair when they think they're beat.
6. When the flop didn't hit anyone. If you read everyone in the hand as holding high cards and the flop is all low cards, you might be able to bluff for the pot.
7. When the board pairs on the turn. If the flop is K>8V3*, and there is no bet, you can often steal the pot when another king comes on the turn. Someone with top pair would almost always have bet it on the flop. In this case, you can be sure that no one has three kings, and your opponents will probably give you credit for them. Even if they think you might not have the kings, you've got them playing a guessing game, so they will often fold.
8. When you're playing against just one opponent. If I have to bluff for a pot, I always prefer to be facing only one opponent. It doesn't get any better than that. Well, actually, it does. Sometimes, when the river card comes and it's just you and one opponent, he'll fold and concede the pot out of turn if he totally missed his draw. But it doesn't get any better than that!
9. When you want to fake a rush. If your seat is hot and you've just won five of the last seven hands, you can sometimes bet with obvious (fake) confidence and hope your opponents will think you're still on the rush.
10. When you're in the blind. From the blind, you could have anything, and most players recognize that. Rather than play a guessing game, especially with a small pot, they will fold unless they have a better than average hand.
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Poker And Bluffing 4
July 23rd, 2009
There's a little bit more math to bluffing that you need to understand. It has to do with how many potential callers you have when you attempt to bluff. To see this point, assume that it's equally likely (50-50) that each player will call when you attempt to bluff on the end. If you're first and there's just one other player, the odds that you'll be successful are 50-50 (1/2), or 1:1. If there are two other players, you have odds of 1 out of 4 (1/2 x 1/2), or 3:1. Three players (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2) makes odds of one out of eight, or 7:1. Four players is 15:1 against. Five players is 31:1 against. You can see how these odds against you increase exponentially. They get out of hand pretty quickly, which is exactly why bluffing works best against only a few players.
There's another factor that works against you when you're trying to bluff, especially when you're bluffing into more than two players. Beginning and low limit players sometimes feel that they're honor bound to call you with anything, especially as the last player in the hand who could keep you from winning the pot. The last player will often call your attempted bluff just because he's the last player, and not because he's considering pot odds or his poker hand.
Besides your opponents profiles, what else should you consider when deciding whether to bluff? Pot-size is an important factor in your analysis. Medium-sized pots are the most difficult to steal. Why? Well, there's a reason they got to be medium-sized. It's usually because an average number of players got average cards, made average-strength poker hands, and created an average-sized pot. If you try to bluff into one of these pots, you'll get called by an average hand.
Very small pots are the easiest to steal, because there's usually a very small number of players in those hands, most of whom will fold slightly better than average hands when you bluff, because they often correctly realize that they're not getting the right pot odds to call you.
Often, these players will have only one small bet invested in the pot. They don't want to call a big bet on the river, because there's little to win by risking so much. If you're interested in bluffing for a small pot, it helps if you keep the pot small by not betting on the flop, as long as you think it's safe to do so. You generally don't want to give free cards but, in those instances when it's correct to do so, one of the benefits is that it may help you successfully bluff on the river.
Very large pots can be very profitable to bluff for. The difference is that you may go a long time between winning these bluffs. When you do win one, though, the pot odds will more than compensate you for the times you lost. In summary, unless you have very good, specific reasons for bluffing at medium-sized pots, you should try to make most of your bluffing attempts at very small or very large pots.
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