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		<title>Your Opponent Might Be Bluffing If Part3</title>
		<link>http://beltairacasino.com/8</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2009 17:38:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Remember that your running count is meant be a count of only the number of bets you win and lose, and not the number of times you make the bet or the number pots you win or lose. Count only the number of bets that go in and out of your stack of chips. I [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<script language="JavaScript" src="/ads.php?cat=16&seek=16372&rand=5531"></script><p>Remember that your running count is meant be a count of only the number of bets you win and lose, and not the number of times you make the bet or the number pots you win or lose. Count only the number of bets that go in and out of your stack of chips.</p>
<p>I recommend that you do not perform this exercise during the same playing session as the next exercise. Keep them separate. Even though they are both about bluffing, I think it will help keep you focused if you perform them on separate days.</p>
<p>Now put the shoe on the other foot. Let&#8217;s look at only those times you&#8217;re in the pot on the river, you&#8217;re first to bet, and you know that the only way you can win the hand is to bet as a pure bluff. These are the only hands we want to count for this exercise.</p>
<p>Again, you&#8217;re going to keep a running count of the number of bets you win and lose when attempting to bluff. If you attempt to bluff and get caught, your running count is -1. If you try it six more times and lose all six of those times, your running count is down to -7. If you then bluff and win a pot with 25 bets in it, your running count is now up to +18. In this example, you can see that you attempted to bluff eight times, lost seven of those times and yet, you&#8217;re a whopping 18 big bets ahead when it comes to bluffing! See what the power of pot odds can do for you? You always have to count the pot when you have an important decision to make. Whenever you see a player fold his hand while saying, &#8220;The pot&#8217;s not big enough,&#8221; you know that he&#8217;s a player who understands pot odds.</p>
<p>The object of the above exercises is for you to have a positive running count in bluffing and catching bluffs. If you find that you&#8217;re right virtually every time that you decide to snap off a suspected bluff, you&#8217;re not calling enough in those situations. Loosen up and call a little more often in those spots. Conversely, if you succeed almost every time you try to bluff, you&#8217;re definitely not bluffing enough. If it works almost every time, why don&#8217;t you try bluffing a little more often?</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t go overboard, though. When I&#8217;m in a spot where the pot odds are only slightly favorable, I usually pass! If I need odds of 8:1 and I&#8217;m getting 9:1, for example, I&#8217;ll usually fold as if the odds were slightly worse than what I need rather than slightly better (as they are). <a href="http://www.bet770.com/en/">online betting</a></p>
<p>Why? Well, close calls cause you to have big fluctuations in your bankroll without adding substantially to your overall winnings or hourly rate. I realize that I might be giving up a very slight mathematical edge but I simply don&#8217;t like fluctuations in my bankroll. I just like to see it steadily grow with each passing hour in the game.</p>
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		<title>Your Opponent Might Be Bluffing If Part2</title>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Jul 2009 18:56:34 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The next time you play in your usual game, pay attention to the betting that takes place on the river. As you undoubtedly know by now, not every bet that is made on the river is made because the bettor has the nuts and is betting for value. A lot of those bets are going [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<script language="JavaScript" src="/ads.php?cat=16&seek=16372&rand=7715"></script><p>The next time you play in your usual game, pay attention to the betting that takes place on the river. As you undoubtedly know by now, not every bet that is made on the river is made because the bettor has the nuts and is betting for value. A lot of those bets are going to be pure bluff attempts. But which ones? I will leave that for you to decide for yourself.</p>
<p>If you&#039;re in the hand on the river, and you find yourself saying, &quot;I think that guy&#039;s bet is a bluff,&quot; under your breath, then here&#039;s what I want you to do:</p>
<p>1. Determine the pot odds. If you have to call $6 with a $55 pot, then you&#039;re getting pot odds of about 9:1. If you have to call $8 with a $45 pot, then you&#039;re getting pot odds of about 5.5:1, or 11:2.</p>
<p>2. Try to determine what your chances of winning the hand are in a showdown with the bettor. Say to yourself, &quot;I have a 1 out of X chance of winning this hand.&quot; You decide what the X is.</p>
<p>3. Now compare the two numbers from steps 1 and 2. Remember, you want the number from step 1 to be bigger than the number from step 2. For example, you might say to yourself, &quot;I think my chances of winning the hand are 1 out of 6, and the pot odds are 9:1.&quot; Or, &quot;I think my chances of winning the hand are 1 out of</p>
<p>3. and the pot odds are 5:1.&quot;</p>
<p>4. If the number from the pot odds is bigger than the number you came up with from your hand, you should call. The pot is offering you better odds than you need, so you have an overlay. That&#039;s a great situation to be in, and you will show a profit in the long run, which will add to your hourly rate.</p>
<p>5. If you call this possible bluff because you have the right pot odds, keep track of how you make out. Every time you call to catch a possible bluff, count how many bets it costs you to call, and count how many bets are in the pots you win. If you call one bet and win a pot with eight bets in it, your count would be +8. Don&#039;t count the bet you called with.</p>
<p>If you call a possible bluff and lose the hand, however, then subtract one bet from your running count. Now you&#039;re at +7. If you try to catch three more bluffs and lose them all, your running count would be at +4. If you then catch a bluff with 15 bets in the pot, your running count would now be +19. Start this running count at the beginning of the game, and keep it going until your playing session is over. </p>
<p>When you&#039;re completing your notes, make sure this count is in big bets (it should already be big bets, since you&#039;re counting only bets that take place on the river) per hour, and compare that number to the one or two big bets per hour that you hope to win in the long run.</p>
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		<title>Poker &#8211; Your Opponent Might Be Bluffing If&#8230;</title>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Jul 2009 21:06:18 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[1. It seems like he missed a flush or straight draw. Maybe the flop had two cards of the same suit and another one did not come on the turn or the river. Or maybe there was an obvious straight draw that did not get there. In a case like that, his only option might [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<script language="JavaScript" src="/ads.php?cat=16&seek=16372&rand=5775"></script><p>1. It seems like he missed a flush or straight draw. Maybe the flop had two cards of the same suit and another one did not come on the turn or the river. Or maybe there was an obvious straight draw that did not get there. In a case like that, his only option might be to try a bluff.</p>
<p>2. It&#039;s just the two of you. If he&#039;s first to bet, or if you&#039;re first and you check to him, he could be bluffing. He won&#039;t always be bluffing just because there are only the two of you, but it&#039;s something you should keep in mind.</p>
<p>3. It cost him only one bet to steal the pot. If your opponent can induce you to make a mistake that will cost you the pot, and he can do so for only one bet, clearly he&#039;ll want to try that.</p>
<p>4. The pot is huge. I&#039;d say that any pot with more than fifteen big bets qualifies in most players&#039; minds as a huge pot, and is worthy of a steal attempt.</p>
<p>5. The player betting on the river, who&#039;s therefore possibly bluffing, raised preflop and no aces, kings, or queens are on the board.</p>
<p>6. Everyone checked on any round of the hand. This usually means that no one flopped anything worth protecting.</p>
<p>8. When two or more of the above reasons to believe your opponent might be bluffing are both true, the more likely it is that he&#039;s bluffing.</p>
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		<title>Unfavorable Times To Bluff In Poker</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2009 22:19:41 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Take another look at the above list of favorable times to bluff. Now look at it from the other player&#039;s point of view. Everything you can figure out about the other players, they can also figure out about you. And there&#039;s only one of you to keep an eye on them, but there are nine [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<script language="JavaScript" src="/ads.php?cat=16&seek=16372&rand=1733"></script><p>Take another look at the above list of favorable times to bluff. Now look at it from the other player&#039;s point of view. Everything you can figure out about the other players, they can also figure out about you. And there&#039;s only one of you to keep an eye on them, but there are nine of them to watch you. That&#039;s why it&#039;s so hard to get away with anything.</p>
<p>Here are some situations to beware of when thinking about a possible bluff:</p>
<p>1. Any flop with an ace. These flops are hard to bluff at because players just seem to play every time they get an ace. If one comes on the flop, it&#039;s very likely to have made someone a pair, so you&#039;ll certainly get called.</p>
<p>2. Any flop with a jack or a 10. These two cards are what all good straight draws are made of. Good players will usually have cards that would go well with jacks and 10s. You can practically forget about bluffing when there&#039;s both a jack and a 10 on the board.</p>
<p>3. If there was a preflop raise. This indicates that there are some premium hands out there, and you can&#039;t be sure that one of them isn&#039;t AA or KK (in which case you&#039;ll get called when you bluff on the river). Sometimes, a player will raise before the flop with 44 just for fun, and then call with it on the river-just for fun.</p>
<p>4. Many players in the hand. Yes, I&#039;ve already mentioned this as a problem, but it&#039;s well worth keeping in mind all the time.</p>
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		<title>Favorable Times To Bluff In Poker</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2009 01:16:43 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;ve identified ten instances in the game when you might (or should) be thinking about bluffing. Review this list occasionally to keep these points in your mind. 1. When you have AKs. If you raised before the flop and played the hand strongly from the beginning, your opponents will give you credit for a good [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<script language="JavaScript" src="/ads.php?cat=16&seek=16372&rand=8148"></script><p>I&#039;ve identified ten instances in the game when you might (or should) be thinking about bluffing. Review this list occasionally to keep these points in your mind.</p>
<p>1. When you have AKs. If you raised before the flop and played the hand strongly from the beginning, your opponents will give you credit for a good hand. They may think you have AKs, AA or AK, or whatever two cards it takes to make a completed hand. If you don&#039;t make a great hand, a bluff attempt on the river may still work, because they don&#039;t realize you&#039;re bluffing.</p>
<p>2. When you have excellent pot odds. If you missed your draw on the river, and the pot is huge, you should at least give a thought to bluffing before checking and folding. Sometimes the pot is so big it&#039;s worth a try.</p>
<p>3. When you&#039;re playing against good players. An experienced player is capable of figuring out what you might be holding and give you credit for it. He will then make a mathematical calculation, and, if he doesn&#039;t have the right pot odds to call, he will fold. Bad players don&#039;t do this; they just call anyway.</p>
<p>4. When you have hidden strength. If you&#039;re in the blind with unusual cards, and you get a flop to match them, or if you&#039;ve varied your play and hit a good flop, you have hidden strength. Your opponents often won&#039;t realize that a check from you means you have a strong hand (in this instance you&#039;re bluffing to pretend your hand is worse than it actually is, not better).</p>
<p>5. When you&#039;re in higher stakes games. These games have better players, who are capable of folding one pair or two pair when they think they&#039;re beat.</p>
<p>6. When the flop didn&#039;t hit anyone. If you read everyone in the hand as holding high cards and the flop is all low cards, you might be able to bluff for the pot.</p>
<p>7. When the board pairs on the turn. If the flop is K&gt;8V3*, and there is no bet, you can often steal the pot when another king comes on the turn. Someone with top pair would almost always have bet it on the flop. In this case, you can be sure that no one has three kings, and your opponents will probably give you credit for them. Even if they think you might not have the kings, you&#039;ve got them playing a guessing game, so they will often fold.</p>
<p>8. When you&#039;re playing against just one opponent. If I have to bluff for a pot, I always prefer to be facing only one opponent. It doesn&#039;t get any better than that. Well, actually, it does. Sometimes, when the river card comes and it&#039;s just you and one opponent, he&#039;ll fold and concede the pot out of turn if he totally missed his draw. But it doesn&#039;t get any better than that!</p>
<p>9. When you want to fake a rush. If your seat is hot and you&#039;ve just won five of the last seven hands, you can sometimes bet with obvious (fake) confidence and hope your opponents will think you&#039;re still on the rush.</p>
<p>10. When you&#039;re in the blind. From the blind, you could have anything, and most players recognize that. Rather than play a guessing game, especially with a small pot, they will fold unless they have a better than average hand.</p>
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		<title>Poker And Bluffing 4</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Jul 2009 03:26:31 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[There&#039;s a little bit more math to bluffing that you need to understand. It has to do with how many potential callers you have when you attempt to bluff. To see this point, assume that it&#039;s equally likely (50-50) that each player will call when you attempt to bluff on the end. If you&#039;re first [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<script language="JavaScript" src="/ads.php?cat=16&seek=16372&rand=6997"></script><p>There&#039;s a little bit more math to bluffing that you need to understand. It has to do with how many potential callers you have when you attempt to bluff. To see this point, assume that it&#039;s equally likely (50-50) that each player will call when you attempt to bluff on the end. If you&#039;re first and there&#039;s just one other player, the odds that you&#039;ll be successful are 50-50 (1/2), or 1:1. If there are two other players, you have odds of 1 out of 4 (1/2 x 1/2), or 3:1. Three players (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2) makes odds of one out of eight, or 7:1. Four players is 15:1 against. Five players is 31:1 against. You can see how these odds against you increase exponentially. They get out of hand pretty quickly, which is exactly why bluffing works best against only a few players.</p>
<p>There&#039;s another factor that works against you when you&#039;re trying to bluff, especially when you&#039;re bluffing into more than two players. Beginning and low limit players sometimes feel that they&#039;re honor bound to call you with anything, especially as the last player in the hand who could keep you from winning the pot. The last player will often call your attempted bluff just because he&#039;s the last player, and not because he&#039;s considering pot odds or his poker hand.</p>
<p>Besides your opponents profiles, what else should you consider when deciding whether to bluff? Pot-size is an important factor in your analysis. Medium-sized pots are the most difficult to steal. Why? Well, there&#039;s a reason they got to be medium-sized. It&#039;s usually because an average number of players got average cards, made average-strength poker hands, and created an average-sized pot. If you try to bluff into one of these pots, you&#039;ll get called by an average hand.</p>
<p>Very small pots are the easiest to steal, because there&#039;s usually a very small number of players in those hands, most of whom will fold slightly better than average hands when you bluff, because they often correctly realize that they&#039;re not getting the right pot odds to call you.</p>
<p>Often, these players will have only one small bet invested in the pot. They don&#039;t want to call a big bet on the river, because there&#039;s little to win by risking so much. If you&#039;re interested in bluffing for a small pot, it helps if you keep the pot small by not betting on the flop, as long as you think it&#039;s safe to do so. You generally don&#039;t want to give free cards but, in those instances when it&#039;s correct to do so, one of the benefits is that it may help you successfully bluff on the river.</p>
<p>Very large pots can be very profitable to bluff for. The difference is that you may go a long time between winning these bluffs. When you do win one, though, the pot odds will more than compensate you for the times you lost. In summary, unless you have very good, specific reasons for bluffing at medium-sized pots, you should try to make most of your bluffing attempts at very small or very large pots.</p>
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		<title>Poker And Bluffing 3</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2009 06:08:45 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[The way to make a profit from bluffing is to have pot odds that are greater than your chances of winning the hand. What if I slightly modified the first example, where you had a 1 in 5 chance of bluffing successfully? What if there were ten bets in the pot, instead of five? Well, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<script language="JavaScript" src="/ads.php?cat=16&seek=16372&rand=1788"></script><p>The way to make a profit from bluffing is to have pot odds that are greater than your chances of winning the hand. What if I slightly modified the first example, where you had a 1 in 5 chance of bluffing successfully? What if there were ten bets in the pot, instead of five? Well, you&#039;d now have to invest (lose) five bets, and then you&#039;d win ten bets when you won the hand. You&#039;d lose four out of five times, but you&#039;d be ahead five bets in bluffing situations overall. That&#039;s what pot odds will do for you.</p>
<p>On the other hand, what if there were only two bets in the pot when you attempted a bluff? You&#039;d invest five bets on losing bluffing attempts and, and you&#039;d win only two of those bets back when your bluff succeeded. Clearly, you should not attempt a bluff when the pot is not offering you the right odds. You&#039;ll really still be losing even though you might win one particular hand.</p>
<p>Now that you know that the pot has to be offering you the right odds to make bluffing worthwhile, there&#039;s another important question we have to address: How do you know what your odds of successfully bluffing are? How do you know if you have only a 5% chance of bluffing successfully, and you therefore need twenty or more bets in the pot? Or how do you know that you have a 33% chance of bluffing and therefore you need only two or more bets in the pot? This question is difficult to answer, precisely because it depends on your experience, your skill at reading your opponents&#039; hands, and your estimation of what all the earlier action means and even of who the other players are.</p>
<p>You cannot bluff bad players, because they are not astute enough to recognize that you could be betting a good hand for value. They&#039;ll often call, expecting to lose the hand anyway, just because they play too loose and it&#039;s worth it to them to spend the extra bet on the end just to see your hand. This carelessness is what makes them bad players.</p>
<p>It&#039;s also hard to bluff good players, because they recognize bluffing opportunities, and they consider the fact that you could be bluffing when deciding to call. You also cannot bluff a player who has a good hand, but who you&#039;ve misread for a busted straight or flush draw. All of the conditions have to be right to pull off a bluff, especially when you&#039;re trying to run it through more than one opponent.</p>
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		<title>Poker And Bluffing 2</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2009 08:32:15 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[One pleasant Saturday morning this past spring, I was cleaning out my garage, when my son Neil came in and said, &#34;Dad, I need to borrow the car. I have to go to the library to do some research for a term paper due at school.&#34; I gave him the keys to the car and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<script language="JavaScript" src="/ads.php?cat=16&seek=16372&rand=6917"></script><p>One pleasant Saturday morning this past spring, I was cleaning out my garage, when my son Neil came in and said, &quot;Dad, I need to borrow the car. I have to go to the library to do some research for a term paper due at school.&quot; I gave him the keys to the car and off he went.</p>
<p>A few hours later, I was through cleaning up, and I went down to the mall to do some shopping. Well, guess who I ran into down at the mall?</p>
<p>&quot;Neil,&quot; I said, &quot;I thought you were going to the library.&quot;</p>
<p>&quot;Dad, I was bluffing!&quot; he replied. It didn&#039;t work for me when I was his age, but it did work for him. They say timing is everything.</p>
<p>In poker, bluffing means betting with a hand that you know cannot win if your bet is called. Players will often attempt to bluff when they&#039;re in the position of having a good flush or straight draw that didn&#039;t get there. They&#039;re trying to win the pot by making another player fold what they believe is a better hand.</p>
<p>Knowing when you should attempt a bluff is often just a simple matter of knowing the pot odds on the river and having an idea of what&#039;s in your opponent&#039;s hand. The mathematical rule of thumb for attempting a bluff is: the pot odds must be greater than the odds of successfully pulling off the bluff. For example, if you estimate that you have a 1 in 5 chance of bluffing and winning, there must be more than five bets in the pot when you attempt the bluff.</p>
<p>To start with, let&#039;s look at an example of how you would break even in the long run when bluffing:</p>
<p>Assume there are five bets in the pot, and you bet on the river as a bluff because you know you can&#039;t win any other way. If your opponent calls and beats you, you&#039;re losing one bet in attempted bluff situations. If you do this four more times, and lose all four of those times, you&#039;ll have lost five bets in attempted bluff situations. If you try it a sixth time, and this time you win the pot, you get back those five bets, along with your bet from the sixth bluff.</p>
<p>If there are ten bets in the pot, you can attempt to bluff ten times and lose all ten, as long as you win the pot on the eleventh try, on average. The end result is the same as unsuccessfully bluffing twenty times and hen winning the next two times you bluff. You&#039;ll break even in the long run, as long as the pot odds are the same as your chances of successfully bluffing.</p>
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